Yeah, its another American Idol post. You know what to do…
John Podhoretz has an interesting analysis of the “Chris Daughtry debacle” on American Idol. He says its a lot like presidential elections. Basically, its all about building coalitions. As people get dropped from the show, their supporters have to go somewhere. So, the folks that can draw in these now “undecided” voters stand to gain the most.
Related to American Idol, Chris had a big following from the start, but he never grew his base: he was a rocker in the beginning, and he stayed a rocker. So, all the votes that have been freeing up have gone to his competitors, until the camel’s back broke, and he suddenly found himself at the tail end of the votes with no time lagging near the bottom.
John goes on to say that Elliot Yamin has probably been the biggest beneficiary of the freed up voters because: 1. He has improved over the weeks, and 2. His sound is the most like that of the contestants who have left.
In looking at the remainders, John thinks that Elliot is the most likely winner, as Katherine McPhee leaves next and Elliot picks up her votes. He sees Taylor Hicks as another Chris Daughtry: someone with a large following which hasn’t grown much over the weeks due to is unique “sound”.
As much as it pains me to say, I think he’s right. However, I think that Katherine has a great career in front of her; she just needs the right management. I think Elliot will be another Fantasia or Reuben: his win will not result in any great success.
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