Microsoft Watch is reporting that the Gartner Group is postulating that the consumer edition of Vista will be delayed until Q2.
Now, first of all, I don’t think this will happen. For those fogeys out there that remember the Windows 95 launch, it was reported late in the game that Microsoft had huge memory problems with Windows 95 that would cause a significant delay, and that didn’t happen. Also, it’s pretty clear to me that the VS 2005 release should have been delayed until it was both stable and complete; it wasn’t (its still not either; I’m waiting for SP 1 due out this summer).
Secondly, I don’t think the average customer cares about Vista anyway.
But, I think the following will happen:
1. Microsoft will “make” their current “release date”. Quality will probably suffer, and maybe some features too, but it will be “released” in January 2007.
2. Due to the quality issues and missing features I mentioned above, Microsoft will get really horrible press over the release. Frankly, it would be next to impossible for MS to get good press. Let’s face it: the press enjoys a good MS-bashing article: it sells copies.
3. At some later date, MS will release SP1, which will be what they should’ve released in the first place. Consumers won’t care (except those unlucky folks who were stuck with the released Vista when they bought new computers), but the press will then gush all over Vista, saying what a great product it is and how everyone should move up to it.
Why do I think that this is how it will go? Because this is how it all went in the past.
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